Never underestimate the stock market’s ability to prioritize hope over experience. Hope would suggest that everything will work out fine: The banking
panic that began with Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse is just a blip; the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point interestrate hike, despite the turmoil in the
financial system, is sound monetary policy; and the S&P 500 index’s bounce that began in October really was the start of a new bull market. That the
index rose 1.4% this past week, while the Cboe Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, fell 15%, would suggest the problems are manageable.
Experience suggests otherwise. Banking panics aren’t something to be trifled with. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged on
Wednesday, the latest one is sure to slow the economy. He suggested that it was the equivalent of a rate hike,though some have put it at a half

point or even 1.5 percentage points. Knowing that, Powell still raised rates by a quarter-point, something that is likely to exacerbate problems in the
financial system. “The Fed is making a mistake,” writes Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities.

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