A new wave of mass migration has begun
新一轮大规模移民潮已经开始

What does it mean for rich-world economies?
这对发达国家的经济意味着什么？

Last year 1.2m people moved to Britain—almost certainly the most ever. Net migration (ie, immigrants minus emigrants) to Australia is currently twice the rate before the covid-19 pandemic. Spain’s equivalent figure recently hit an all-time high. Nearly 1.4m people on net are expected to move to America this year, one-third more than before the pandemic. In 2022 net migration to Canada was more than double the previous record. In Germany it was even higher than during the “migration crisis” of 2015. The rich world as a whole is in the middle of an unprecedented migration boom.
去年有120万人移居英国，几乎可以肯定是有史以来移民人数最多的一年。目前，澳大利亚的净移民(即移民减去移民)是2019冠状病毒疾病大流行前的两倍。西班牙的相应数字最近创下历史新高。预计今年将有近140万网民移居美国，比疫情爆发前增加三分之一。2022年，加拿大的净移民人数是之前记录的两倍多。在德国，这一数字甚至高于2015年“移民危机”期间的水平。发达国家作为一个整体，正处于前所未有的移民热潮之中。

Its foreign-born population is rising faster than at any point in history .
在国外出生的人口增长速度比历史上任何时候都要快

What does this mean for the global economy? Not long ago it seemed as if many wealthy countries had turned decisively against mass migration. In 2016 Britons voted for Brexit and then Americans for Donald Trump—both political projects had a strong anti-migrant streak.
这对全球经济意味着什么？不久前，似乎许多富裕国家已决定反对大规模移民。2016年，英国人投票支持英国退欧，美国人投票支持唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump) ，这两个政治项目都有强烈的反移民倾向。

In the global wave of populism that followed, politicians from Australia to Hungary promised to crack down on migration. Then covid closed borders. Migration came to a standstill, or even went into reverse, as people decided to return home.
在随后的全球民粹主义浪潮中，从澳大利亚到匈牙利的政治家们都承诺要打击移民。然后关闭边境冠状病毒疾病。由于人们决定返回家园，移民活动停滞不前，甚至逆转。

Between 2019 and 2021 the populations of Kuwait and Singapore, countries that typically receive lots of migrants, fell by 4%. In 2021 the number of emigrants from Australia exceeded the number of immigrants to the country for the first time since the 1940s.
在2019年到2021年之间，科威特和新加坡这两个通常接收大量移民的国家的人口下降了4% 。2021年，来自澳大利亚的移民人数自1940年代以来首次超过该国的移民人数。

In some places the surge in migration has brought back a sense of normality. Singapore’s foreign workforce recently returned to its pre-pandemic level. In other places it feels like a drastic change. Consider Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada’s second-smallest province by population.
在一些地方，移民的激增已经带回了一种正常的感觉。新加坡的外籍劳动力最近恢复到大流行前的水平。在其他地方，这感觉像是一个巨大的变化。以纽芬兰-拉布拉多为例，按人口计算，它是加拿大第二小的省份。

Long home to people of Irish-Catholic descent—with accents to match—net migration to the province is running at more than 20 times the pre-pandemic norm. St John’s, the capital, once fairly homogeneous, feels more like Toronto every time you visit.
长期以来，爱尔兰天主教后裔的净移民人数是疫情爆发前正常人数的20倍以上。圣约翰大教堂，这个曾经相当同质化的首都，每次你去的时候都感觉更像是多伦多。

Heart’s Delight, a small rural village, now has a Ukrainian bakery, Borsch. The provincial government is setting up an office in Bangalore to help recruit nurses.
心之喜，一个小村庄，现在有一个乌克兰面包店，罗宋汤。省政府正在班加罗尔设立办事处，帮助招聘护士。

The new arrivals in Newfoundland are a microcosm of those elsewhere in the rich world. Many hundreds of Ukrainians have arrived on the island—a tiny share of the millions who have left the country since Russia invaded.
纽芬兰的新移民是富裕世界其他地方移民的缩影。数以百计的乌克兰人已经抵达这个岛屿，在俄罗斯入侵以来离开这个国家的数百万人中只占很小的一部分。

Indians and Nigerians also appear to be on the move in large numbers. Many speak English. And many already have familial connections in richer countries, in particular Britain and Canada.
印度人和尼日利亚人似乎也在大量流动。很多人说英语。而且许多人在富裕国家已经有了家庭关系，特别是英国和加拿大。

Some of the surge in migration is because people are making up for lost time. Many migrants acquired visas in 2020 or 2021, but only made the trip once covid restrictions loosened.
移民激增的部分原因是人们正在弥补失去的时间。许多移民在2020年或2021年获得了签证，但他们只是在冠状病毒疾病限制放松后才前往。

Yet the rich world’s foreign-born population—at well over 100m—is now above its pre-crisis trend, suggesting something else is going on.
然而，富裕国家的外国出生人口(远远超过1亿)如今已超过危机前的趋势水平，这表明还有其它因素在起作用。

The nature of the post-pandemic economy is a big part of the explanation. Unemployment in the rich world, at 4.8%, has not been so low in decades. Bosses are desperate for staff, with vacancies near an all-time high. People from abroad thus have good reason to travel.
疫后经济的性质是解释的一个重要部分。富裕国家的失业率为4.8% ，几十年来都没有这么低过。老板们迫切需要员工，职位空缺接近历史最高水平。因此，外国人有充分的理由去旅行。

Currency movements may be another factor. A British pound buys more than 100 Indian rupees, compared with 90 in 2019. Since the beginning of 2021 the average emerging-market currency has depreciated by about 4% against the dollar.
汇率变动可能是另一个因素。一英镑可以买到100多印度卢比，而2019年是90印度卢比。自2021年初以来，新兴市场货币对美元的平均贬值幅度约为4% 。

This enables migrants to send more money home than before.
这使得移民能够比以前寄更多的钱回家。

Many governments are also trying to attract more people. Canada has an explicit target to welcome 1.5m new residents in 2023-25. Germany and India recently signed an agreement to allow more Indians to work and study in Germany.
许多政府也在努力吸引更多的人。加拿大有一个明确的目标，在2023年至2025年迎接150万新居民。德国和印度最近签署了一项协议，允许更多的印度人在德国工作和学习。

Australia is increasing the time period some students can work after graduating from two to four years. Britain has welcomed Hong Kongers looking to flee Chinese oppression—well over 100,000 have arrived. Many countries have made it easy for Ukrainians to enter.
澳大利亚正在延长一些学生毕业后从事工作的时间，从两年延长到四年。英国对希望逃离中国压迫的香港人表示欢迎ーー已有远远超过10万人抵达香港。许多国家已经让乌克兰人很容易进入。

Even those countries hitherto hostile to migration, including Japan and South Korea, are looking more favourably on outsiders as they seek to counteract the impact of ageing populations.
即便是那些迄今对移民持敌对态度的国家，包括日本和韩国，在寻求抵消人口老龄化影响的过程中，也更加看好外来者。

Economies that welcome lots of migrants tend to benefit in the long run. Just look at America. Foreign folk bring new ideas with them.
从长远来看，欢迎大量移民的经济体往往会从中受益。看看美国。外国人带来了新思想。

In America immigrants are about 80% likelier than native-born folk to found a firm, according to a recent paper by Pierre Azoulay of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues.
根据麻省理工学院的皮埃尔 · 阿祖莱(Pierre Azoulay)和他的同事们最近发表的一篇论文，在美国，移民成立公司的可能性比土生土长的人大约高出80% 。

Research suggests that migrants also help to build trading and investment links between their home country and the receiving one. A slug of young workers also helps generate more tax revenue.
研究表明，移徙者还有助于在本国和接受国之间建立贸易和投资联系。大量的年轻工人也有助于创造更多的税收收入。

Your people shall be my people
你的子民就是我的子民

Some economists also hope that the wave of migration will have more immediate benefits.
一些经济学家还希望，这波移民潮将带来更直接的好处。

“High immigration is helpful for the Fed as it tries to cool down the labour market and slow down inflation,” says Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management, an asset manager, expressing a common view. Such arguments may be a little too optimistic.
资产管理公司阿波罗全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management)的托尔斯滕•斯洛克(Torsten Slok)表达了一个共同的观点: “大量移民有助于美联储为劳动力市场降温并减缓通胀。”。这些观点可能有点过于乐观了。

Having more people does increase the supply of labour, which all else equal reduces wage growth. But the effect is pretty small. There is little sign that the countries receiving the most migrants have the loosest labour markets.
拥有更多的人口确实会增加劳动力供应，而其他条件相同的劳动力供应会减少工资增长。但影响很小。几乎没有迹象表明，接收移民最多的国家的劳动力市场最为宽松。

In Canada, for instance, pay is still rising by about 5% year on year.
例如，在加拿大，工资仍然在以每年5% 的速度增长

Migrants also increase demand for goods and services, which can raise inflation. In Britain new arrivals appear to be pushing up rents in London, which already had a constrained supply of housing. A similar effect is noticeable in Australia.
移民还增加了对商品和服务的需求，这可能加剧通胀。在英国，新移民似乎推高了伦敦的房租，而伦敦的住房供应本来就有限。类似的影响在澳大利亚也很明显。

Estimates published by Goldman Sachs, a bank, imply that Australia’s current annualised net migration rate of 500,000 people is raising rents by around 5%. Higher rents feed into a higher overall consumer-price index.
高盛银行公布的估计数字显示，澳大利亚目前的年度净迁移率为50万人，这意味着房租上涨了5% 左右。更高的租金推高了整体消费者价格指数。

Demand from migrants may also explain why, despite higher mortgage rates, house prices in many rich countries have not fallen by much.
来自移民的需求也可以解释为什么尽管抵押贷款利率上升，但许多富裕国家的房价并没有大幅下跌。

Over the next year or so migration may come down a bit. The post-pandemic “catch-up” will end; rich-world labour markets are slowly loosening. Yet there is reason to believe that historically high levels of new arrivals will remain raised for some time.
在接下来的一年左右，移民数量可能会有所下降。大流行之后的“追赶”将会结束; 发达国家的劳动力市场正在慢慢放松。然而，我们有理由相信，新移民的历史高水平将在一段时间内保持上升势头。

More welcoming government policy is one factor. More important, migration today begets migration tomorrow, as new arrivals bring over children and partners. Before long the rich world’s anti-immigrant turn of the late 2010s will seem like an aberration.
更加欢迎的政府政策是一个因素。更重要的是，今天的移民带来明天的移民，因为新移民会带来孩子和伴侣。不久之后，富裕国家在2010年代末转向反移民的做法将看起来像是一种反常现象。

 

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