Flying taxis could soon be a booming business
飞行出租车很快将成为一项蓬勃发展的业务

Electric aircraft are well-suited to short journeys
电动飞机非常适合短途旅行

Paris has long been at the heart of the history of flight. It is where the Montgolfier brothers ascended in the first hot-air balloon in 1783, and where Charles Lindbergh completed the first solo transatlantic aeroplane journey in 1927. Next year, if all goes to plan, Paris will be the site of another industry first when Volocopter, a German maker of electric aircraft, launches a flying-taxi service during the Olympic Games.
巴黎一直是飞行历史的中心。1783 年，蒙哥菲尔兄弟在巴黎乘坐第一个热气球升空；1927 年，查尔斯-林德伯格在巴黎完成了首次单人跨大西洋飞机旅行。明年，如果一切顺利，德国电动飞机制造商 Volocopter 将在奥林匹克运动会期间推出飞行出租车服务，届时巴黎将再创行业先河。

At the Paris Airshow in June the company, and some of its rivals, paraded a new generation of battery-powered flying machines designed for urban transport.
在 6 月的巴黎航展上，该公司和一些竞争对手展示了新一代电池驱动飞行器，专为城市交通而设计。

The electrification of aviation has often been written off as a pipe dream, with batteries presumed too heavy a substitute for hydrocarbon fuel in an airborne vehicle.
航空电气化往往被认为是痴人说梦，因为人们认为在航空飞行器中，用电池替代碳氢化合物燃料过于沉重。

For longer journeys, such as Charles Lindbergh’s across the Atlantic, that may well be true.
对于像查尔斯-林德伯格横跨大西洋这样的长途旅行来说，情况可能确实如此。

Yet upstarts like Volocopter are betting that electrification can unlock a boom in demand for clean and quick aerial journeys over shorter distances.
然而，像Volocopter这样的后起之秀却在打赌，电气化能释放出对短距离清洁、快速空中旅行的巨大需求。

The main form of flying taxi under development, called an electric vertical take-off and landing (evtol) aircraft, looks somewhat like a super-sized drone, carrying between one and four passengers, plus a pilot.
正在开发的主要形式的飞行出租车被称为电动垂直起降（evtol）飞机，看起来有点像超大型无人机，可搭载一到四名乘客，外加一名飞行员。

Powered by batteries, they are both quiet enough to quell complaints in crowded cities, and fast: capable of up to 300kph, enough to comfortably outpace a car, especially one stuck in traffic.
它们由电池提供动力，既安静又快速：最高时速可达 300 公里，足以轻松超越汽车，尤其是堵在路上的汽车。

Indeed, optimists hope the absence of traffic in the sky will also make evtols well-suited to autonomous operation. They could prove handy for transporting goods, too.
事实上，乐观主义者希望天空中没有交通也能使 evtols 非常适合自主运行。它们在运输货物时也会非常方便。

That vision has inspired giddy predictions. Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, reckons global spending on evtols could hit $1trn by 2040. Volocopter is not the only player staking out the terrain.
这一愿景引发了令人目眩的预测。投资银行摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）预计，到 2040 年，全球用于 evtols 的支出将达到 1 万亿美元。Volocopter公司并不是唯一的参与者。

According to the Vertical Flight Society, a non-profit, more than 400 contenders have developed evtol designs. Joby, a Silicon Valley startup, has already raised $2bn from investors.
据非营利组织 "垂直飞行协会"（Vertical Flight Society）称，已有 400 多家竞争者开发出了 evtol 设计。Joby 是一家硅谷初创公司，已经从投资者那里筹集了 20 亿美元。

Archer, another, hopes to have “hundreds or thousands” of its craft flying by the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
另一家公司 Archer 希望，到 2028 年洛杉矶奥运会时，能有 "成百上千 "的飞行器在空中飞行。

Despite the enthusiasm, challenges remain.
尽管热情高涨，但挑战依然存在。

One is technical certification, which is turning out to be a lengthy process as aviation regulators grapple with an entirely new form of aircraft.
其一是技术认证，由于航空监管机构正在努力应对一种全新形式的飞机，因此认证过程变得十分漫长。

Some manufacturers, such as Volocopter and EHang, a Chinese firm, are close to having machines in service.
一些制造商，如 Volocopter 和 EHang（一家中国公司），已接近将机器投入使用。

In April Volocopter opened an assembly plant in Germany. But others are further off.
今年 4 月，Volocopter 在德国开设了一家组装厂。但其他公司还在更远的地方。

Late last year Joby was forced to push back its launch by a year to 2025 thanks to, among other things, regulatory delays.
去年年底，由于监管延误等原因，Joby 被迫将上市时间推迟一年，至 2025 年。

Many have even longer to go.
许多人甚至还有更长的路要走。

The bigger question is whether the business of flying taxis will be viable. evtols currently range in price from $1m to $4m.
目前，evtols 的价格从 100 万美元到 400 万美元不等。

Although their cost may come down as the industry develops, they are likely to remain expensive pieces of machinery.
虽然随着行业的发展，这些设备的成本可能会降低，但它们仍可能是昂贵的机械设备。

Brian Yutko of Wisk, a maker backed by Boeing, says that flying-taxi rides will be “accessible to the masses”.
由波音公司支持的 Wisk 公司的布莱恩-尤特科（Brian Yutko）说，"大众将可以乘坐飞行出租车"。

Joby promises that its fares will be comparable to catching a taxi.
Joby 承诺，其票价将与出租车相当。

Yet some studies suggest the cost could end up as high as $7 per km, many times a regular taxi fare.
然而，一些研究表明，每公里的成本可能高达 7 美元，是普通出租车费的好几倍。

Even without a pilot, flying taxis may remain a convenience affordable only to a lucky few.
即使没有飞行员，飞行出租车可能仍然是少数幸运儿才能享受的便利。

An alternative opportunity for electrification lies with small fixed-wing planes designed to transport a few dozen passengers over distances of a few hundred kilometres—for instance, between nearby cities.
电气化的另一个机会是设计用于在几百公里的距离上运送几十名乘客的小型固定翼飞机--例如，在附近城市之间运送乘客。

Heart Aerospace, a Swedish firm, plans to have a 30-seater plane with an all-electric range of 200km in the air by 2028. In September last year Eviation, an Israeli company, successfully tested a nine-seater electric plane with a range of 400km.
瑞典公司 Heart Aerospace 计划在 2028 年之前，在空中飞行一架 30 座、航程 200 公里的全电动飞机。去年 9 月，以色列公司 Eviation 成功测试了一架 9 座、航程 400 公里的电动飞机。

According to McKinsey, a consultancy, air travel accounts for just 8% of journeys between 150km and 800km in America. In Europe it is only 4%.
根据麦肯锡咨询公司的数据，在美国，150 公里至 800 公里的旅行中，航空旅行仅占 8%。在欧洲，这一比例仅为 4%。

Most such journeys are taken by car, even in Europe, where buses and trains are more readily available.
大多数此类旅行都是开车，即使在欧洲，公共汽车和火车也更方便。

That creates a big opportunity for environmentally friendly short-haul flights, especially given that 90% of America’s population and 50% of Europe’s live within a 30-minute drive of a regional airport.
这为环保型短途航班创造了巨大商机，尤其是考虑到美国 90% 的人口和欧洲 50% 的人口居住在距离支线机场 30 分钟车程的范围内。

Expect plenty more experiments with electric aircraft in the years ahead. ■
未来几年，电动飞机将有更多尝试。■

 

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